Do Or Die – Gavin Lux

Arguably one of the most anticipated prospects heading into the 2020 season, Gavin Lux didn’t deliver as much as collectors were hoping for. Heading into the 2020 season Lux was ranked as a top five minor league prospect by just all major evaluators, making it as high as number two overall by MLB’s ranking. Most of the hype came from the Wisconsin native’s dominance in the minors. Playing for the Triple A Oklahoma City Dodgers in 2019, Lux recorded a .392/.478/.719 stat line in forty-nine games. The Dodgers first round pick of the 2016 June Amateur Draft then made a brief appearance in the final twenty-three games of the 2019 major league season and held his own, going .240/.305/.400 at the plate. With a solid year to build off of, prices for the Indian Trails High School alum’s first Bowman Chrome autograph card sat comfortably in the $180 – $200 range heading into the 2020 season.

The encore performance of the Dodgers top prospect didn’t quite live up to the expectations many people had. After playing in twenty-three games the season before, Lux only appeared in nineteen in 2020. It wasn’t only Lux’s playing time that dropped. The twenty-three year old second baseman saw his slash line go down as well, hitting .175/.246/.349 in sixty-nine plate appearances. Lux’s lack of production during the season led to his basic disappearance during the Dodgers World Series run. He struck out in his one plate at bat during a twelve to three win over the Padres in the NLDS and never saw the plate again.

The disappointing performance in 2020 was reflected in Lux’s 2016 Bowman Chrome autograph prices. The last ten sales, dating back to November come to a $149.44 average price. That is down 17.2% from the $180.52 average sale price of the ten sold immediately leading into the season. In fact, of the ten most recent sales only one has topped the preseason average. Collectors don’t seem to be ready to give up on Lux just yet though. The total number of sales dropped 50% from October to November but that is to be expected for the offseason. It is more promising that Lux’s December numbers surpassed November’s. It will be interesting to see how this trend continues through the rest of the offseason but it reason not to panic for those holding 2016 Bowman Draft #CDA-GL. Indeed, there is still reason to believe there is still time for Lux to improve. The 2020 season was a difficult adjustment for most players, veterans and rookies alike. With the talent that surrounding him on the Dodgers’ roster Lux has time to develop as well, Los Angeles can afford to be patient with their star prospect. With that being said though, collectors may not be willing to wait as long as the defending World Series champions front office. Prospect collecting is a game of what have you done lately, so at the very least Lux will have to hit above the Mendoza line in order to stay relevant in the hobby for 2021 and beyond.